NBA Preview FAQ: 2011-12 Season

It’s baaaaccckkkkkkk. No, I’m not talking about the NBA, which just went through a completely pointless lockout and threatened the beautiful game coming off one of the greatest seasons in history.

No, I’m talking about The People Say Booyah, which has been on a ridiculous hiatus thanks to Philly Sports World, which I don’t believe exists anymore and Pro Football Weekly, which definitely exists and was awesome with great experiences and even better people.

This is the point of the column where I promise you that the blog will be back in full throat, but that would pretty much be a lie. However, given my ridiculously awesome class schedule next quarter at NU (no class on Friday, no class before 3 p.m. two days away and 12:30 p.m. the other two days), I’ll try to bring at least one column a week after the holidays. But, no promises.

But the reason you’re here is to get the essential knowledge on the NBA for the upcoming season. The hellacious schedule that they are forced to play (back-to-back-to-backs, five games in six nights, etc.) will make for some really ugly, college basketball-quality games (and if you are going to try to argue that college basketball is better, just stop. Let me know when the other 99 percent of college players learn to dribble, or when a majority of college coaches, and I’m looking right at you Rick Barnes, get a clue and then we MIGHT talk. “Atmosphere” and “they care so much” and “look at them hustle” can only take you so far). Regardless, I am pumped for basketball. The Eagles stink, Northwestern is primed to lose another bowl game, Bill Carmody still coaches our basketball team, I’m not ready to watch regular season hockey on a consistent basis, and Arsenal (my soccer club team) usually plays way to early in the morning for me to watch. All I have is Sixers, talking smack to Bulls and Lakers fans and the rest of the NBA. It’s time for the Frequently Asked Questions, 2011-12 NBA Preview edition.

The Frequently Asked Questions: Sixers Playoff Preview

That definitely didn't end well. From what seemed like it would be a season that could end with 45+ wins as recently as three weeks ago, the Sixers limped to the finish and ended with the definition of mediocrity, 41-41. Part of that had to do with the mounting injuries (Andre Iguodala’s knee and Lou Williams’ hamstring) and part if it had to do with bad basketball, especially on the defensive end (in the first quarter against Orlando Monday night, the defense was so bad the Magic could have intentionally attempted to get contested shots and ended up with a wide-open three).

But a shaky finish does nothing to diminish what was a fantastic rebirth. The Sixers got back to playing basketball, not the horrid permutation they displayed when Eddie Jordan was coaching. It was the true epitome of team play, with no single player averaging more than 15.1 ppg. They raised their play on defense, centered around Iguodala’s growth into a top-3 perimeter defender, to become a top-10 defensive team. The team recovered from a dreadful 2009-10 to become a fun and enjoyable team to watch this season.

But the warm and fuzzy feelings go out the door when the playoffs roll around, especially when the most overhyped 58 win team in history (they had a whole website, with three quality writers, following their every move. And they don’t even have fans who care about the team! The injustices of the world) waiting for you in the second round. And, of course, there’s nothing better for looking back on a good season and prepare you for the intensity of the playoffs than my favorite gimmick, the Frequently Asked Questions.

Was it a mistake for the Sixers to make the playoffs?

Thaddeus Young is the most important Sixers player in
the series against Miami.

Conventional NBA wisdom states that a team like the Sixers, without an established star and in a bad cap situation, can’t get stuck in the cycle of mediocrity: continuing to make the playoffs as a lower seed, taking a beating in the first round, getting a middling draft pick that only helps to maintain the current mediocrity instead of improve it, leaving you to repeat the same cycle all over again. What you need to do, convention holds, is completely bottom out, hope for a top-3 draft pick, and hope that the draft has the franchise savior in it (the Howard, Rose, Durant type). Otherwise, you’ll never make it to a level where you can compete for championships, because you’ll never have a superstar and without a superstar, you don’t stand a chance in the NBA’s star-driven system.

That ‘wisdom’ is directed at teams exactly like the Sixers: they have no star, they have no cap space and they have no chance of winning the championship this year. By that standard, making the playoffs really isn’t going to help the team in the long run, right?

But what that wisdom doesn’t account for is the experience that being in the playoffs brings. Do you think Derrick Rose benefited from battling Boston and LeBron’s Cavs in two consecutive first rounds? Locking heads with great teams is the best way to get the players you have playing better. They experience real NBA basketball, contrary to what you believe happens in the regular season. In the playoffs, the intensity rises, the pressure grows and players fight and claw for everything. Nothing is easy.

NBA Preview FAQ

Have you ever had one of those sports weekends, where at least three of your teams play and they all lose? Were they important games? No, that hasn’t happened to you?

Well, then you can take solace in my pain, as I just encountered the worst sports weekend ever.

To recap:

1. My beloved Northwestern Wildcats held a 17-0 lead over undefeated Michigan State at home, on homecoming. It was glorious, especially considering there is no team I hate more in the Big 10 than Michigan State (which makes turning their cheer “Go Green, Go White” into the highly offensive “Can’t Read, Can’t write” even sweeter). But a fumble at the goaline, a crazy fourth and 11 conversion on a fake punt by Michigan State, and Northwestern QB Dan Persa (who didn’t have a game where he completed less than 73% of his passes until Saturday) doing his best (it pains me to say) Donovan McNabb impression on our two last drives, and all of a sudden the ‘Cats lost 35-27. And yes, it seemed like it happened that fast.

2. Ryan Howard, for the love of God, swing the bat.

3. The Eagles secondary decided to make Kenny Brit look like a cross of Jerry Rice and Randy Moss, Kevin Kolb decided he didn’t want a quarterback controversy and Kerry Collins lead the Titans to a blowout victory (seriously though, Kerry Collins? The only reason he’s still in the league is because he needed one more paycheck. And you lose? Pathetic).

What is the point of me telling you this story. Well because you are my six loyal readers and I needed someone to vent to. Oh, and that I couldn’t be more ready to get into the most compelling NBA season ever. I need something to take my mind off of the horrendous end to the Phillies, Northwestern and Kolb seasons. I now realize that it’s more fun to watch sports when don’t have a team, or as it’s more commonly known, being a 76ers fan.

Will the Axis of Evil reign supreme?

It’s time for the Frequently Asked Questions.

Is there any reason to optimistic about the Sixers this season?
To answer this with a question: Would you be optimistic about a team with the worst frontline since the Puerto Rican national team, a second overall pick who has yet to show any discernable skills yet, a “best player” who was the 16th option on offense at the FIBA World Championships, a coach who hasn’t been to the playoffs since 1997, and Elton Brand still collecting eight-figure pay checks?

Most of these things we already knew: Marressee Speights is the Sixers best big man, Andre Iguodala is a third banana on any half-decent team, Doug Collins is not the long term solution at coach and Elton Brand is the basketball equivalent of Jason Peters.

But the major issue comes with Evan Turner, the second pick who was considered a sure thing. I want to avoid being the typical Philly fan who overreacts to every misstep and calls for everyone’s firing and benching at the first sign of trouble….but: 1. Turner was horrendous in summer league. There is no other way to put it. 2. His preseason line is as follows: 29 MPG, 7.7 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 3.7 APG, 2.2 TO, 31%. The only reason this is remotely concerning is 3. DeMarcus Cousins’ preseason line: 25 MPG, 14.3 PPG, 8 RPG with 3 offensive boards per, on 40% shooting.

The day of the draft lottery, when the Sixers secured the second overall pick, I was double rainbow happy, knowing that Evan Turner was waiting in the wings. Minutes before the draft started, I was making statements that Cousins’ would be the best player to come out of the draft this year, barring any future admittance to the insane asylum.

A lot of it has to do with Cousins: when is the last time you saw a rookie big man with his footwork, rebounding prowess and touch around the rim? But then there’s also Turner, who as I started re-watching some of his play, looked a step too slow to be an NBA swingman, has no range three-point range whatsoever (he’s attempted no threes in the preseason while Cousins is 3-4 from distance), was turnover prone and can only play with the ball in his hands.

I am now legitimately afraid of how Cousins may haunt our franchise. If he doesn’t go Sprewell on Paul Westphal, I am convinced that he will be a 22-13 guy in three years as he and Tyreke Evans battle Kevin Durant for the Western Conference crown. I’m going to have nightmares about his drop-steps as Turner throws up mediocre 13, 5 and 5’s for the next few years.

I just threw up in my mouth a little bit.

What’s the most underrated story going into the season?
It might be just me, but Allen Iverson having to sign in Turkey is the most depressing basketball story I’ve heard since MJ decided to return with the Wizards.

Does anyone remember that it was Iverson that bridged the gap between Jordan’s first retirement or that he was the most popular player, by far, before Kobe’s resurgence post-Colorado, or that he was the only reason almost everyone you knew had Reebok’s, or that he was one of the top 5 unique players ever, or that he was the most fearless player ever, or that he was the fastest with the ball in his hands than any player ever?

Now he has to go to Turkey and play against ‘C’ competition for one last pay check? I feel like my childhood was a lie.

Can Kevin Durant and the Oklahoma City Thunder live up to expectations?
Kevin Durant is expected to be somewhere between Larry Bird, Michael Jordan, Mother Theresa and Abraham Lincoln. So, yes.

But in all seriousness, there is so much expected of the Thunder and Durant in particular, it’s almost impossible for them to meet expectations (a lot of people have them second in the West and those really concerned about Kobe’s knee have them in the Finals). But still, if you temper expectations, just reasonably, you will see that the Thunder and Durant have an unbelievably bright future.

The things they have in their favor: Durant and Russell Westbrook were the two best players on Team USA in the summer, hands down, Scotty Brooks is a really good coach, Sam Presti is smarter than your GM, and Serge Ibaka is better than you think.

Things not in their favor: They are really young dealing with expectations for the first time (usually ends poorly), Jeff Green, Thabo Sefalosha’s offense, and every big man not named Serge Ibaka.

I think they have more things in their favor than not, the only thing really concerning me is the lofty expectations. But Kevin Durant will finish in the top 2 in MVP voting again, probably lead the league in scoring and throw up crazy silly numbers. The Thunder will be in the top half of the Western Conference, win 50+ games, Westbrook will breakout even more than he did last year and get at least to the second round of the playoffs. Just remember that their best players are all under 25. Let’s not get carried away too quickly.

But we still need to be legitimately concerned about the expectations and pressures we put on Durant. We just got done witnessing LeBron not be who we wanted him to be (more on this later) this summer, not to mention the way we’ve torn down Kobe, Iverson, Bonds, Tiger among countless other athletes for all different reasons. I think we need to realize that athletes can’t always be what we want them to be. Durant might be super humble, loyal and respectful, but then again he might not. We’ve thought these things before. So while it’s great that we ascribe all the behaviors to him that we all love, including me, we need to remember that’s he’s human and going to make mistakes. We just need to accept Durant and every other athlete for exactly what they are: tremendous athletes and that’s pretty much it.

Which Western Conference teams are the biggest threat to the Lakers?
I think it’s a two team race between the aforementioned Thunder and Utah Jazz (though I think the Spurs might possibly, maybe have one last gasp in them if Tiago Splitter is good) especially since the Suns decided not to resign Amare and instead use that money to create TSFF (Terrible Small Forwards Fund).

The Jazz had the best offseason of them all (so good, I could Whip My Hair to it), getting the biggest heists PG (Post-Gasol) in stealing Al Jefferson for two late first round picks. Now they have the size to compete with the Lakers up front (Boozer killed them last year. He just couldn’t get his shot off against the length) and they still have the second or third or fourth best point guard in Deron Williams (because Chris Paul is unequivocally, beyond a shadow of a doubt, Simply Lemonade vs. Tropicana better and D-Rose and Rajon Rondo are closing fast), and a great coach in Jerry Sloan. I like the Jazz.

Who’s the Sleeper Team?
Hell is about to freeze over in three…two…one: the Los Angeles Clippers.

Obviously, they are the worst franchise in professional sports, and a lot of things can be said about Donald Sterling (which I will now proceed to say: he’s a dirty cheapskate racist who doesn’t remotely care about his product) but that doesn’t change the fact that there is still a lot to like about the Clip Show.
Blake Griffin is already one of the top 5 power forwards in the league (in order Pau Gasol, Amare, Dirk, Bosh and Griffin), Eric Gordon was the third best player this summer on Team USA (for reference Danny Granger, Chauncey Billups and Tyson Chandler were tied for the worst), Chris Kaman is an all-star and Mike Dunleavy is no longer the coach, making for an infinite improvement in that department even though I couldn’t tell you who his replacement is.

What’s stopping the Clippers from winning 45ish games and making the playoffs in a down Western Conference? Well their curse that will probably lead to Blake Griffin going Shaun Livingston on us or Baron Davis deciding to show up looking he did last year, where he weighed 15 pounds less than Shaq at the start of the season.

Still, with Houston not quite there, the Suns conjuring memories of the 05-06 Knicks with all their swingman, the Nuggets in limbo with Carmelo (Denver has no choice but to trade him. Get whatever they can and move on. The last thing they need is him on national television saying “I’ve decided to take my talents to Midtown”) and the Trailblazers having chemistry problems, the bottom two spots are definitely up for grabs. If the Clippers hand the keys to Gordon and Griffin, they should snag it.

How do the playoffs shake out in each conference?
For the west, in order: Lakers, Jazz, Thunder, Mavs, Spurs, Blazers, Clippers, Nuggets (if they keep Carmelo) or Hornets.

For the east, in order: Heat, Magic, Celtics, Bulls, Bucks, Hawks, Knicks and Wizards (by the way, I expect the Wizards and Knicks to win about 35 games each. The East is that bad).

If you’re the Lakers, how concerned are you?
I’ve been saying for years that eventually, the Lakers will have a 3-5 year stretch of continual lottery appearances (and what a glorious stretch that will be) and the way Kobe has looked so far, that time is moving mighty close.

However, it’s not quite here. If the Lakers and more specifically Kobe are smart about minutes, numbers etc, hands the keys to Gasol for the regular season and he rests consistently throughout the season, kind of the way Gregg Popovich handles Duncan or Doc Rivers handles his old guys, then Kobe should have just enough juice to get back to the Finals in a weaker West and put up one more 6-24 in Game 7.

The issue lies in the years beyond that. Kobe has officially hit the Tim Duncan circa 2009 stage of his career: he’s still good, can get his numbers but in no way, shape or form can carry his team past the second round the way we’re accustomed.

That means they will have to permanently hand the keys over to Gasol, hope Andrew Bynum can put together a full season (which is truly laughable) and find some way to get the atrocious contracts off the books (which should be easy, just put in a call to Chris Wallace).

Darker days are coming for the Lakers, but that doesn’t start until 2011.

Do the Magic, Celtics or Bulls have a chance against the Heat in the East?
Only the Celtics, if healthy, have a real shot. Last time I checked, the Magic still have Vince Carter, so in big playoff moments they play 4 on 5. The Bulls are much improved (and Derrick Rose has a beastly look about him), but don’t have the wing firepower to stay with Wade or LeBron.

Leaving only the Celtics with a real shot to stop the Axis of Evil (the name I’m giving them). Even though they’ve done their best to get the 2002 All-Stars back together (seriously, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, KG, Shaq and Jermaine O’Neal were all 2002 All-Stars), as we saw last year, they have an ace in the hole: defense.

If they can get one of the O’Neal’s to play pick and roll defense (or at the very least get Jermaine to awake from the coma he suffered in the playoffs last year), they have a shot at stopping the Heat.

The Heat don’t have anyone to matchup with Rondo, KG should be able to score on Bosh’s terrible defense and Pierce manages to give LeBron a hard time every time they play.

But you have to be concerned that Ray Allen may not have anything left, they don’t have near the athleticism to keep up in a track meet and all the years they beat Wade and LeBron, they only geared their defense to one guy, not three.

In other words, the Heat should make it to the Finals and make it pretty easily.

What about the Heat? Can it work?
The big question. Before the answer, let’s consider the factors:

1. The big offseason acquisition to complement the Axis of Evil, Mike Miller, is out for a while. It would be a big deal if his name was James, Wade or Bosh. Alas it’s not.

2. Chris Bosh has finally found his niche: open 15 jumpers created by the two best penetrators in the league. He doesn’t really have to rebound, post up or facilitate offense. His only job is to hit open looks. I maintain he’s the luckiest man in America.

3. Dwyane Wade can now only focus at what he’s really good at: finishing games. No longer does he have to worry about making sure Carlos Arroyo doesn’t blow it in the second quarter. He’s got one mentality: finish in the fourth quarter, which is scary.

4. Erik Spolestra has the most pressure on him of anyone in the organization not named LeBron. I don’t care what Pat Riley says. He’s no better than the Situation when he tries to swoop in and steal Vinny’s girl. Riles always has his eye on the job, and rumors will swirl at the first sign of trouble.

5. LeBron has a look about him that is so encouraging its scary. It was really funny when he tweeted that he was taking mental notes at the people taking shots at him but after watching the focus he’s shown in preseason, it seems like he’s serious. He finally developed a semi-post game after 4 years of people yelling at him to do so. He’s no longer loosy-goosy, taking pictures on the sideline and joking around. He’s all business. He’s Kobe on nights flying to games from Eagle, Iverson in 2001, Shaq in 2000, Jordan in 1996: on a flat out mission to shut all the doubters up. Say what you want about the decision but it has radically changed the way he operates. He’s no longer who we want him to be but exactly what he wants to be (as a really good Nike commercial with a not to veiled shot at Barkley shows). I think he’s finally got it. And all it took was him completely destroying his popularity. He could honestly throw up 22-9-11 and do it with ease.

So to answer the question, yes. I honestly hate this team with everything I got, just because of the way it came together, the way they celebrated like they already won the championship and the fact that it happened to one of the worst fan bases in sports. But this looks like it’s going to work. Everyone seems to accept their role. They are going to out athlete everyone. And it’s going to see all that talent on the floor at once will be amazing to watch.

It pains me to say but they are the best team in the league.

Who will win the major awards?
Rookie of the Year: Blake Griffin. Easiest award to pick if he stays healthy. He’s freaky even though John Wall will be really good.
Coach of the Year: Jerry Sloan. He’s just due.
Defensive Player: Dwight Howard. If he doesn’t win this award, we can stop mentioning him like he’s a top player right?
Most Improved: Jrue Holliday. The lone bright spot on a barren 76ers roster will rack up easy numbers
6th man: Jamal Crawford: He’ll win the backhanded compliment award for the second straight year
MVP: LeBron: It’s almost crazy how because of the summer, we forgot that this guy is still the best player on the planet. Just because he joined the Heat doesn’t mean that he’ll suck. He’s finally playing with good teammates. As much as I love Durant, LeBron is on a mission like he’s never been before.

Finals Pick
Miami over Lakers in 7

Game 7 will be played in Miami. The fair weather fans will decide that it’s an important enough game to go to. Kobe might shoot 5-24 in this game. Ron Artest will take that same three he made last year, only this time it will do what it’s supposed to and get sucked into Rick Ross’ fat orbit. Wade will close like he did when he won Finals MVP. LeBron’s decision will prove to be correct.

The reign of terror is set to begin.

The NBA at Midseason

The NBA trading deadline was pretty sobering to those who really enjoy parody: there are a handful of teams really gunning for a championship this year, while the rest are willing to wallow in their mediocrity or even sell off good players for cap space to look ahead for next year (see Knicks, Clippers, Wizards). If you’re a fan of one of those elite teams this is fun for you or if you have a young core that is exciting to watch (only Oklahoma City, Sacramento and Chicago qualify) you can have fun too, while fans of the rest of the teams that have no shot of doing anything get an introductory course of Crappy Basketball 101 on a nightly basis (like me and my beloved Sixers).

But the economic realities make this possible and definitely unsustainable in the future if the NBA wants to continue to be successful. It’s no fun knowing that two-thirds of the league doesn’t have a chance at sniffing the second round and watching teams just giving good players away for 10 cents on the dollar. What’s worse is that you get angry at your team for not engaging in auctioning off players for expiring contracts (like I am with the less beloved GM of the Sixers, Ed Stefanski). But, you can’t win when you’re paying two non-franchise guys, franchise money, in today’s NBA where that takes up so much of your cap. I’d be fine with Andre Iguodala being the 3rd guy on a championship team, running the wing for a team like Portland with an established crunch-time guy/alpha dog in Brandon Roy, legit big guy in LaMarcus Aldridge, and steady point guard like Andre Miller. But Iggy as my number one guy making $80 million over 5 years, I’ll have to pass (Which, by the way, makes Stefanski’s decision to stand pat even more infuriating. He knows he can’t go anywhere with this team as presently constructed, there was interest in people taking our terrible contracts off our hands, yet he wanted to continue with this group. But when you can be a fringe lottery team for the next few years and barely fill half the seats in your arena, you have to do it).

This is the NBA today. Take on one or two really bad contracts for non-franchise guys, and you’ll be forced to either be terrible, or make terrible trades for expiring contracts, so you can do it again. Something’s gotta change: either we get better GMs, change the way the cap works (higher figure, hard cap, like the NFL), or shake up the contract structure.

Enough with the morbid stuff (and crappy Sixers talk), let’s get to the action on the court.

What I like:

· Depending on how things continue to develop after the Butler/Haywood trade, the Mavericks could create problems. I was watching them play Orlando and they went on an impressive run where they played some fantastic defense on Dwight Howard and Jason Kidd really controlled the tempo offensively and got them any shot they wanted and I thought. They now have a guy who can defend the Kobe/Carmelo types in Butler, a point guard who is playing at a high level (I’m actually really shocked that he’s actually shooting a solid percentage and not getting torched on defense the way he used to. His renaissance was about as likely as curling becoming entertaining, so applaud his accomplishment), plus they have one of the best crunch-time scorers in the league (Dirk), and a nice bench. If they went on a mini-run and challenged for the two seed, I wouldn’t be surprised.

· If you are Facebook friends with me or in one of my fantasy leagues, you already know about my man-love for Kevin Durant. But even I did not see this coming. He should be no lower than second on any MVP ballot and you won’t convince me otherwise. He’s carried the Thunder from a dreadful season last year (23 wins), to potentially a home-court advantage in the first round. He’s been as consistent as anyone in the league, evidence being his 29 straight games of 25+ points. He’s efficient offensively, doesn’t bog down the offense, and the other guys stay involved. He’s gotten better defensively. He’s become one of the best guys in crunch time. Really, the only thing this team is missing is a low-post presence and they could seriously contend. And I’ve gained all this from the four games of theirs I’ve watched. I don’t care if it’s not a big sample. I know what my eyes saw. The Thunder are legit and Durant is the reason why. Now excuse me while I visit the Durantula shrine in my room.

· Houston and Cleveland pulled off the two best deals at the deadline. Cleveland gave up a first round pick (worth nothing since it’ll be at the end of the first) and Big Z (going to be bought out, expected to return) for Antwan Jamison, a versatile scorer, who’s a solid rebounder and a heady veteran, giving LeBron a solid second guy who’s ready to win. Houston got a bonafide scorer (Kevin Martin), a top-ten pick from last year’s draft (Jordan Hill), and two Knicks first round picks (which could be great picks if their summer of 2010 bonanza turns into the end of the Mayan calendar). I liked Houston’s trade more because it gave them a real two guard, someone who could score late in games (ending the Trevor Ariza experiment as a go-to guy and preventing him from breaking Larry Hughes’ record for most bad shots in the most important situations record set in 05-06), and gives them a good foundation in the future if they want to make trades and such.

What I didn’t like:

· The best team in the West, the Lakers, should have upgraded at point guard. The Lakers have a glaring black hole at the point guard position, with Derek Fisher (my pick for most washed-up/overrated veteran, just ahead of Sheed) and Jordan Farmar routinely sucking. It’s something that the other elite teams take advantage of routinely (Billups, Mo Williams both play well against Lakers) and something that they should have upgraded. It would have off-set the Cavs move for Jamison. A guy like Kirk Hinrich would have been perfect. He one of the better defenders at point guard, shoots the ball well, unselfish, and runs a team well. If they got him, they would be clear-cut favorites for the title, and it wouldn’t be close. They wouldn’t have any holes. They would be scary-good. But since Jerry West wasn’t running the Bulls, Mitch Kupchak couldn’t have stolen him for nothing. Now they are stuck getting abused by solid point guards nightly. Oh well…

· I don’t like the Spurs. They made me look stupid in the off-season for thinking that they would be serious contenders to the Lakers. Richard Jefferson just hasn’t worked. Manu isn’t the same player and probably won’t be. Parker has regressed from last year. And the greatest power forward ever can only carry them but so far, being 33 and all. It’s sad watching the end of their era fall so feebly. They were a great team, as sound defensively as we have ever seen. And that’s what I don’t like more than anything. Not that I’m wrong, but that I can’t watch one of the truly great teams in history at their peak. Queue up Nas and Quan.

· Mike Dunleavy. Just because.

· I’m not so sure how the salary dump strategy will turn out for the Knicks. Because if it works, they could end up with Wade/Joe Johnson/LeBron and Bosh/Stoudemire, and then they will look not bad, if they can find a point guard. If they end up with Donnie Walsh introducing Rudy Gay as the future of the franchise, they are going to be in trouble (and they will celebrate in Houston with those two fantastic picks). Lot of risk there. I hate New York, so I hope they fail.

Now before the season, I had a Cavs-Lakers finals before the season, and there is really no other reason to think otherwise. KG’s knee is keep the Celtics from reaching their potential. Orlando is too flukey for my tastes (they get into those “Dwight is unstoppable right now, but we want to have three straight possessions where Ryan Anderson, Matt Barnes, and Mickael Pietrus jack up contested threes. No wonder Stan Van Gundy is grumpy). I would like the Nuggets, if they didn’t have that head-case factor (I refuse to trust J.R. Smith, Kenyon Martin, Nene or Birdman with anything important in the playoffs. No matter how good they look the regular season, those guys are capable of derailing a series single-handedly. And George Karl is their coach, and I hope he recovers fully from his cancer, but he’s a terrible coach. The only coach in history without a viable inbounds play).

That only leaves the Cavs and Lakers. I have my reservations about both. The Lakers have Ron Artest (who has been a terrible acquisition and you won’t convince me otherwise) and the aforementioned Fisher/Farmar combo. The Cavs have a crunch-time scorer who can’t shoot free throws and falls in love with a jumper in crucial moments, as well as questionable support players who have already disappeared in one playoffs.

I picked the Lakers before the season, but coupled with the Cavs getting Jamison and the way Mo Williams and Delonte both handed Fisher his AARP card, I have to go with them (this is not even mentioning that Ron Artest may be the worst matchup for LeBron. He doesn’t have near the quickness nor the strength to stay with him. At least some people have one or the other. He has neither. Reason #421 why they should have kept Trevor Ariza.)

My Undisputed Finals Pick

Cavs over Lakers in 7. Homecourt will be huge and with the Cavs looking like they will get it, having game 7 at home will make all the difference.

The (Half-Baked) Plan to Fix the Sixers

I think we can put a fork in the 2009-2010 Philadelphia 76ers. When you blow 20 point leads to the Minnesota Timberwolves that’s pretty much the end of any real serious contention for the playoffs, let alone anything else. I consider that the final straw.

Which is a disappointing outcome to be sure, considering this team, at least at face value, has the talent to compete for a playoff spot. It is essentially the same team from last season, minus the swap Allen Iverson for Andre Miller, and the team from last season grabbed a 6 seed and had a legit (though long) shot at the 4 seed in the final month of the season.

Numerous problems have contributed to the drop-off, from the hiring of Eddie Jordan, who’s “Princeton” offense is a disaster and defensive schemes resemble matador training for Spanish bullfighters, to the great production Elton Brand has never delivered, as well as injuries to promising young guys Marreese Speight’s and Lou Williams. Still, the excuses aren’t good enough to explain the 4th worst record in the NBA at 13-27.

But the Sixers struggles aren’t the point of this blog. Instead, were here to rebuild the Sixers, which could be a relatively short process before the Sixers can become at least relevant, though a tad long to become elite once more. Stay with me, it’s about to get complicated.

The first order of business is to drop the bad contracts of the Stefanski era (By the way, someone please explain to me why he is plagued with same problems that Billy King had. $80 million for Iguodala and $82 million for Brand, as well as dealing for Jason Kapono at $6.2 million this year and player option next year at $6.5 million, and it doesn’t help that Kapono never plays. I at least thought that he couldn’t be worse than King and while he hasn’t been worse, he certainly isn’t any better). Houston is dangling Tracy McGrady’s $22.8 million expiring contract to the highest bidder and the Sixers have the pieces to make the deal.

Houston likes Iggy and it has been reported that they are willing to take on one more bad contract. So you can deal Iguodala and Brand’s cadaver for T-Mac and Brian Cook’s expiring contract (at $3.5 million). Any deal with Houston has to include Brand but shouldn’t include Sammy Dalembert because (gulp) I want to keep him. I know this doesn’t make any sense considering I have railed on the guy since the Larry Brown era but I have two legit reasons why. First, his contract expires in 2011, which could be used as part of my future plans and second, he’s just playing well. He finally understands his role as rebounder/shot blocker and he’s executing that really well, while his offensive game should only consist of put backs (though he occasionally thinks he’s Chris Bosh and drifts out to 15 ft. for jumpers. Baby steps people, baby steps).

And if you’re interested Los Angeles, you can have Jason Kapono for Adam Morrison straight up, so we can get Morrison’s expiring contract and you can get a shooter to come off that abomination you call a bench. Especially considering Sasha Vujacic hasn’t played a productive minute since June 2008 and looks like neglected step-child of Billy Ray Cyrus (This isn’t really a part of my plan, I just wanted to unnecessarily make fun of Vujacic).

With a roster now completely devoid of any offensive talent or defensive want-to, as well as a sideshow backcourt with Iverson and McGrady, which makes the year 2002 cower in fear, we can execute part two of my plan. Tank city for John Wall!

A minor digression: Even though it is a part of an elaborate tank scheme, you can’t help but be excited to see Iverson and McGrady in the same backcourt. A pair of former greats on what appear to be their last legs who could never be confused with guys who get their teammates involved. What could be better? Watching those two awkwardly play off each other leading to a gluttony of poor shots and defense that would make Keith Van Horn embarrassed would be comedy almost worth the deeply discounted price of admission at the Wachovia Center. Almost.

Anyway, I already think the tank plan is in effect given the Timberwolves debacle but just to be safe, we’re saying it anyway. Now, I understand that this is a tenuous idea, given the whole draft lottery thing. But the Sixers, with the fourth-worst record are already in good position for the first pick in theory. The last team to win the lottery after having the worst record were the Magic in 2004 and teams have gotten the top spot having the 6th, 5th, 9th and 3rd in the last few years.

Plus, I’m sure that David Stern wants to rig another draft lottery. I know it must sicken him to see all the number one picks in recent years go to small markets like Toronto, Milwaukee, Portland, or Hell (the Clippers), with the exception of Derrick Rose to Chicago. But even if the Sixers can’t get the first pick, there is tons a talent in this draft as opposed to last year’s nuclear waste site, including my personal man crush Evan Turner of Ohio State (He’s got a great feel for the game where, every time I watch him, he’s 3 steps ahead of the defense. He knows what they’re doing and he’ll create something where he may not get the assist or the basket, but he created the situation for the assist and basket to be made. It doesn’t make sense reading it, just watch him).

But this draft is crucial because I only want them to end up with either Wall or Turner, but mostly Wall. Wall is a franchise guy who is (close your eyes Bulls fans) better than D-Rose. They are pretty much the same when it comes to most things like vision, athleticism etc., but Wall separates from Rose in his killer instinct. While Rose seems deferential and unassuming, Wall takes control of games at the right moments, something that I haven’t seen from Rose at Memphis or in the NBA yet. Wall is can’t-miss, bonafide superstar in the making.

Then you fire Eddie Jordan. And hire him back, just to fire him again. And this time, we hire a real coach, like Jeff Van Gundy or someone with a winning pedigree, like Van Gundy. Van Gundy can have Jordan on his staff, but only to fire him within hours. I don’t like Eddie Jordan if you can’t tell.

When free agency starts, you target a power forward, most likely Amar’e Stoudemire, because of his reputation in the league makes him a stay away for most teams (kinda lazy, plays no defense, rebounds like Eddy Curry) but his talent fits in well with my vision especially as a secondary star (not having to play the lead role, really on here for offense, surround him with defense and veteran leaders), with a max deal that eat up most of the $20 million in cap space for this offseason, or Carlos Boozer as a second option though not for the max instead around $13-15 million. But we should be able to get at least one of the power forwards. The mid level exception is also in play for a defensive center like Tyson Chandler since we don’t plan on bringing Daly back after 2011.

Setting the stage for our big summer, 2011, where we send everything and the kitchen sink at Carmelo Anthony. This is based on a few things. First, with Dalembert, Kapono, and Willie Green (who now assumes the role of most hated Sixes) coming off the cap, we have the money for a max guy.

Second, the Nuggets are not built well to win in the long term. Chauncey Billups is getting up there and age and there aren't many guys in that cupboard. Third, I’m assuming that by 2011 J.R. Smith will have done something so utterly dumb to piss Carmelo off that he will want to leave (What could this be? I don’t know; the possibilities are endless given the brain power possessed by Mr. Smith. This is the part of the plan I’m most sure of).

Fourth, there won’t be a lot of bidders in 2011. So many teams have geared up for years for the summer of 2010 that when the great talent goes away, they will be forced to overpay fringe talent like Joe Dumars did this summer and leave us pretty much all alone (This part of the plan is where I am the second-most sure. NBA GMs are so awful that out of fear for “having to do something” with the money in 2010, they will make wrong decisions. Works like clockwork, every offseason).

Fifth, and most importantly, Carmelo is coming into his own. After years of struggling to deal with the LeBron/Carmelo, new Magic/Bird hype and a lot of other problems, but now he just gets it. He really grew up in last year’s playoffs, committed himself on defense, made good plays down the stretch of games, basically he became a guy you can build a championship team around. I want him leading my franchise.

So in the most ideal situation we have John Wall, Carmelo, Thaddeus Young, Amar’e/Boozer and Chandler as a starting five with Lou and Speights coming off the bench. Or more likely it would be Lou, Evan Turner, Carmelo, Amar’e/Boozer and Chandler and you can use Thaddeus Young as the key piece in a deal to pick up impact player A from struggling franchise in need of cap relief B. Tell me one of those teams isn’t ready to be serious in the NBA, and have a legit shot at the title in two years. That’s what I thought.

Carmelo is your alpha dog, with Amar’e playing second fiddle. Then you have the young developing backcourt guy in either Evan Turner or John Wall, both guys who are unselfish and get their teammates involved, have high basketball I.Q’s, and are NBA ready. You have a defensive centerpiece in Chandler (who is the biggest risk in this whole solution. If there is another defensive center on the market, we go after him instead. Given how Chandler’s play has dropped off in the last two years, I almost considered bring back Daly. Almost) and young guys you already have in Lou, Speight’s and Young, who can be dealt to get a guy if you feel you’re ready to make a run at a championship.

You surround those teams with the buyout guys that come through in March and another veteran swingman for the minimum in the summer and boom, the Sixers are back. Ed Stefanski can thank me later by giving me 50% of his salary.

But in the off-chance that this doesn’t work and we can’t get a power forward this year and Carmelo wants to come here as much as he wants herpes, well, we can always blame Billy King for not winning when Iverson was good.

Uncertainty at Point Guard Creates Unenviable Postion for Sixers

This offseason has created two realities for the 76ers that they must come to grips with. First, they are not in a select group of “Haves” in the Eastern Conference (Boston, Orlando, and Cleveland) that have clearly distanced themselves from a group of mediocre teams that don’t really have a shot of advancing past the second round of the playoffs. Granted, they already couldn’t compete with those teams, but the additions of Rasheed Wallace, Vince Carter, and Shaquille O’Neal have more than solidified it. They are, frankly, years away from even thinking that the teams ahead of them may come back to their level so they can compete. Second, this team is going to have to make some serious decisions if they want to stay in the second tier of teams in the East (Chicago, Atlanta, Miami).

The outcome of that decision will be seen by what the Sixers do at point guard for the upcoming season. Andre Miller is an unrestricted free agent and would really prefer not to come back to the Sixers, which may or may not be a good thing depending on how you look at it. While many will point out that Elton Brand, who is coming back from shoulder surgery and will be ready for the start of the season, couldn’t play with Andre Iguodala and Sam Dalembert (though I really can’t blame him for the latter), the reality may be that he couldn’t play with Andre Miller. Consider that Andre Miller spends most of his time in the lane or on the block because that is generally where he generates offense. So in the 29 games the Sixers had Brand, Iguodala and Miller, they struggled because the paint became too crowded for any of them to thrive. The fit would work better if Miller could shoot a jump shot and spread the floor from 20 ft. or farther but that’s as likely as Megan Fox singing at my next birthday party.

This partly explains the reasonable success that the Sixers had after Brand was shut down for the season. The lane was clogged less, Miller's inability to shoot was masked and Iguodala was free to continue to take contested 23 foot jumpers (why they only had reasonable success). Without Brand, the floor opens up for Miller to do his work in the lane and create from 15 ft. in, allowing Iguodala more room to do work on offense as well. But with the Sixers investing $82 million in Brand, his ability to thrive with the other players on the floor needs to be a priority.

Which creates the little conundrum that the Sixers currently find themselves in. If they bring back Andre Miller, the offense becomes restricted to 15 ft., Brand and Iguodala struggle like they did last year and we kill Ed Stefanski for signing Brand. Or they don’t resign Miller, and considering the Chris Duhon for Andre Miller swap was nixed, Lou Williams would take over at point guard, which isn’t the most ideal situation. Lou Williams is best served to come off the bench, like he currently does. He’s a pure scorer from the point guard position and has never been asked to really set up an offense. To ask him to all of sudden become something he’s not, a pure point guard, is only asking him to fail, especially considering he lacks a crucial component to his game to play the position at its highest level, vision. An average passer with below average vision with an uncanny ability to get to the rim and score is probably best suited to score and lead the second unit that is pretty devoid of scoring.

If those don’t seem like good options, it’s because of their not. You can either bring back a guy who really won’t play very well with the highest paid player on the team or get worse and basically sacrifice a season by being lead by a point guard who really isn’t a point guard, all this while first-round pick Jrue Holliday tries to learn the game to eventually take over the post. Well that’s why Ed Stefanski gets paid.

Realistically, they may have to bring back Andre Miller and new coach Eddie Jordan will have to get creative on offense to create the necessary spacing, via Jason Kapono longrange shooting, to allow everyone to be successful. At this point, they can’t put their season in the hands of an unproven point guard and get worse. Already struggling in the attendance department, a season where they compete with the Bobcats, Pacers and Nets for 8th and 9th spots just isn’t ideal. What’s ideal is they get a point guard like Steve Blake from Portland, a proven guy in this league who can shoot and get a team into its offense efficiently, nothing great or spectacular, but proven and reliable. But unfortunately, what is best isn’t really feasible.

But they also can’t have Elton Brand and Andre Miller’s playing style clash for, presumably, 82 games next season. A repeat of the first 29 games from last season, over 82 games, wouldn’t amount to very much.

So no matter how you look at it, the Sixers are probably going to be a worse basketball team than they were last year. Brand, Miller and Iguodala can’t play winning basketball together and Lou Williams can’t seamlessly replace Miller and have the offense run at its best. And the ideas that Jrue Holliday is ready to come in and start just aren’t reasonable, considering he didn’t start at UCLA. He needs to slowly adjust to the NBA game, starting off getting few minutes and slowly work more into the rotation.

With the options staring Stefanski in the face, it’s moments like these that make me happy I’m not a general manager.