The NBA at Midseason

The NBA trading deadline was pretty sobering to those who really enjoy parody: there are a handful of teams really gunning for a championship this year, while the rest are willing to wallow in their mediocrity or even sell off good players for cap space to look ahead for next year (see Knicks, Clippers, Wizards). If you’re a fan of one of those elite teams this is fun for you or if you have a young core that is exciting to watch (only Oklahoma City, Sacramento and Chicago qualify) you can have fun too, while fans of the rest of the teams that have no shot of doing anything get an introductory course of Crappy Basketball 101 on a nightly basis (like me and my beloved Sixers).

But the economic realities make this possible and definitely unsustainable in the future if the NBA wants to continue to be successful. It’s no fun knowing that two-thirds of the league doesn’t have a chance at sniffing the second round and watching teams just giving good players away for 10 cents on the dollar. What’s worse is that you get angry at your team for not engaging in auctioning off players for expiring contracts (like I am with the less beloved GM of the Sixers, Ed Stefanski). But, you can’t win when you’re paying two non-franchise guys, franchise money, in today’s NBA where that takes up so much of your cap. I’d be fine with Andre Iguodala being the 3rd guy on a championship team, running the wing for a team like Portland with an established crunch-time guy/alpha dog in Brandon Roy, legit big guy in LaMarcus Aldridge, and steady point guard like Andre Miller. But Iggy as my number one guy making $80 million over 5 years, I’ll have to pass (Which, by the way, makes Stefanski’s decision to stand pat even more infuriating. He knows he can’t go anywhere with this team as presently constructed, there was interest in people taking our terrible contracts off our hands, yet he wanted to continue with this group. But when you can be a fringe lottery team for the next few years and barely fill half the seats in your arena, you have to do it).

This is the NBA today. Take on one or two really bad contracts for non-franchise guys, and you’ll be forced to either be terrible, or make terrible trades for expiring contracts, so you can do it again. Something’s gotta change: either we get better GMs, change the way the cap works (higher figure, hard cap, like the NFL), or shake up the contract structure.

Enough with the morbid stuff (and crappy Sixers talk), let’s get to the action on the court.

What I like:

· Depending on how things continue to develop after the Butler/Haywood trade, the Mavericks could create problems. I was watching them play Orlando and they went on an impressive run where they played some fantastic defense on Dwight Howard and Jason Kidd really controlled the tempo offensively and got them any shot they wanted and I thought. They now have a guy who can defend the Kobe/Carmelo types in Butler, a point guard who is playing at a high level (I’m actually really shocked that he’s actually shooting a solid percentage and not getting torched on defense the way he used to. His renaissance was about as likely as curling becoming entertaining, so applaud his accomplishment), plus they have one of the best crunch-time scorers in the league (Dirk), and a nice bench. If they went on a mini-run and challenged for the two seed, I wouldn’t be surprised.

· If you are Facebook friends with me or in one of my fantasy leagues, you already know about my man-love for Kevin Durant. But even I did not see this coming. He should be no lower than second on any MVP ballot and you won’t convince me otherwise. He’s carried the Thunder from a dreadful season last year (23 wins), to potentially a home-court advantage in the first round. He’s been as consistent as anyone in the league, evidence being his 29 straight games of 25+ points. He’s efficient offensively, doesn’t bog down the offense, and the other guys stay involved. He’s gotten better defensively. He’s become one of the best guys in crunch time. Really, the only thing this team is missing is a low-post presence and they could seriously contend. And I’ve gained all this from the four games of theirs I’ve watched. I don’t care if it’s not a big sample. I know what my eyes saw. The Thunder are legit and Durant is the reason why. Now excuse me while I visit the Durantula shrine in my room.

· Houston and Cleveland pulled off the two best deals at the deadline. Cleveland gave up a first round pick (worth nothing since it’ll be at the end of the first) and Big Z (going to be bought out, expected to return) for Antwan Jamison, a versatile scorer, who’s a solid rebounder and a heady veteran, giving LeBron a solid second guy who’s ready to win. Houston got a bonafide scorer (Kevin Martin), a top-ten pick from last year’s draft (Jordan Hill), and two Knicks first round picks (which could be great picks if their summer of 2010 bonanza turns into the end of the Mayan calendar). I liked Houston’s trade more because it gave them a real two guard, someone who could score late in games (ending the Trevor Ariza experiment as a go-to guy and preventing him from breaking Larry Hughes’ record for most bad shots in the most important situations record set in 05-06), and gives them a good foundation in the future if they want to make trades and such.

What I didn’t like:

· The best team in the West, the Lakers, should have upgraded at point guard. The Lakers have a glaring black hole at the point guard position, with Derek Fisher (my pick for most washed-up/overrated veteran, just ahead of Sheed) and Jordan Farmar routinely sucking. It’s something that the other elite teams take advantage of routinely (Billups, Mo Williams both play well against Lakers) and something that they should have upgraded. It would have off-set the Cavs move for Jamison. A guy like Kirk Hinrich would have been perfect. He one of the better defenders at point guard, shoots the ball well, unselfish, and runs a team well. If they got him, they would be clear-cut favorites for the title, and it wouldn’t be close. They wouldn’t have any holes. They would be scary-good. But since Jerry West wasn’t running the Bulls, Mitch Kupchak couldn’t have stolen him for nothing. Now they are stuck getting abused by solid point guards nightly. Oh well…

· I don’t like the Spurs. They made me look stupid in the off-season for thinking that they would be serious contenders to the Lakers. Richard Jefferson just hasn’t worked. Manu isn’t the same player and probably won’t be. Parker has regressed from last year. And the greatest power forward ever can only carry them but so far, being 33 and all. It’s sad watching the end of their era fall so feebly. They were a great team, as sound defensively as we have ever seen. And that’s what I don’t like more than anything. Not that I’m wrong, but that I can’t watch one of the truly great teams in history at their peak. Queue up Nas and Quan.

· Mike Dunleavy. Just because.

· I’m not so sure how the salary dump strategy will turn out for the Knicks. Because if it works, they could end up with Wade/Joe Johnson/LeBron and Bosh/Stoudemire, and then they will look not bad, if they can find a point guard. If they end up with Donnie Walsh introducing Rudy Gay as the future of the franchise, they are going to be in trouble (and they will celebrate in Houston with those two fantastic picks). Lot of risk there. I hate New York, so I hope they fail.

Now before the season, I had a Cavs-Lakers finals before the season, and there is really no other reason to think otherwise. KG’s knee is keep the Celtics from reaching their potential. Orlando is too flukey for my tastes (they get into those “Dwight is unstoppable right now, but we want to have three straight possessions where Ryan Anderson, Matt Barnes, and Mickael Pietrus jack up contested threes. No wonder Stan Van Gundy is grumpy). I would like the Nuggets, if they didn’t have that head-case factor (I refuse to trust J.R. Smith, Kenyon Martin, Nene or Birdman with anything important in the playoffs. No matter how good they look the regular season, those guys are capable of derailing a series single-handedly. And George Karl is their coach, and I hope he recovers fully from his cancer, but he’s a terrible coach. The only coach in history without a viable inbounds play).

That only leaves the Cavs and Lakers. I have my reservations about both. The Lakers have Ron Artest (who has been a terrible acquisition and you won’t convince me otherwise) and the aforementioned Fisher/Farmar combo. The Cavs have a crunch-time scorer who can’t shoot free throws and falls in love with a jumper in crucial moments, as well as questionable support players who have already disappeared in one playoffs.

I picked the Lakers before the season, but coupled with the Cavs getting Jamison and the way Mo Williams and Delonte both handed Fisher his AARP card, I have to go with them (this is not even mentioning that Ron Artest may be the worst matchup for LeBron. He doesn’t have near the quickness nor the strength to stay with him. At least some people have one or the other. He has neither. Reason #421 why they should have kept Trevor Ariza.)

My Undisputed Finals Pick

Cavs over Lakers in 7. Homecourt will be huge and with the Cavs looking like they will get it, having game 7 at home will make all the difference.

NBA Offseason Review Part 3: Cavs Small Money Moves More Effective Than Big Spending

This is part three of a six part series reviewing the NBA offseason, taking an individual look at all the title contenders (Lakers, Magic, Cavaliers, Celtics and Spurs) and then the rest of the league as a whole. The first two parts examined the counterparts in the NBA Finals, the Lakers and Magic. Today, the focus is on Eastern Conference finalist, the Cleveland Cavaliers.

The Cavs offseason was the toughest to judge from my standpoint. They had their moments of pure brainlessness (signing Anderson Varejao to a 6 year $50 million contract), why are you doing this 6 months after you should have (trading for Shaq when he was available at the trade deadline) and solid, under the radar moves that help to address some of the problems they had last season (Jamario Moon, Anthony Parker, Leon Powe). GM Danny Ferry has put a lot (of money) into this season, knowing it is the last chance to impress LeBron before the summer of 2010.

The Varejao move, though, does not accomplish that goal. Anderson Varejao, in the most robust of economies, would be worth $25-30 million over six years. In times like these, he’s not worth a dollar more than the $3 million a season Glen “Big Baby” Davis got from Boston. It’s moments like these when I wonder “Is the Billy King virus of bad talent evaluating then spending enormously on the same bad talent (Samuel Dalembert anyone)” spreading? And here I was thinking that the recession was the cure for this awful illness. Its moves like these that have me thinking Kevin Coble has a legit shot at an overinflated NBA contract. Exactly what is it about Varejao’s game that screams lock him up immediately so another contender doesn’t get him: his stunning appearance or his massive contributions on offense? I’m confused because Varejao has no low post game to speak of, his jump shot is nothing to write home about and he can’t defend elite players with any kind success, which can only lead me to assume that 14-year-old girls would jump into the Cuyahoga River if he were to ever leave. He does nothing exceptional, except get routinely beat on the pick and roll by Rashard Lewis. His contributions to the team are easily replaced (energy, above average rebounder) by just as average yet far cheaper alternatives (David Lee).

Where things started to get a little more interesting (and less dumbfounding) was with the move to acquire Shaq, which they could have done at the February trade deadline. It’s a move that purveyed part desperation, part basketball sense. One of the reasons the Cavs lost to Orlando (and there are many reasons but I don’t feel like going into it) is that Big Z and Varejao couldn’t guard Dwight Howard one-on-one, they were forced to do an awkward “half double-team, half stay with the guy who’s about to make this three in my face” thing that they never really stood a chance. As a result, Howard got going and the shooters got going. With Shaq, at least they can have some confidence that Howard won’t completely truck-stick through his defender, dunk with ferocity and take the shot clock with him the process. And offensively, he’s a major upgrade over Big Z and Varejao. He gives the Cavs a legit low post presence, a guy who can score with his back to the basket (this in stark contrast to Big Z floated out to the three point line far too often. That’s exactly what you envision from your 7’2” center). But he doesn’t help with the main reason that the Cavs lost, which was the pick and roll (because Shaq is historically awful defending the pick and roll). That’s why I get some hints of desperation. This move doesn’t make the most basketball sense in the world. Shaq isn’t that athletic anymore, there are still injury concerns, and at this point of his career is inconsistent. It seemed like management said “we have to make a move and Shaq is out there. Let’s just get him so we can say we did something.” It’s not like it’s a bad move but it wasn’t the smartest move.

Where the Cavs needed the most help was getting a swingman who could come off the bench (because, let’s be real, Wally Szczerbiak probably won’t win a sixth man award). They just needed some length and athleticism off their bench so they could play a variation of styles. The small moves they made after all their big spending was done, Jamario Moon and Anthony Parker, really accomplish that. Jamario Moon is an athletic, rangy small forward who defends really well (probably would have been better against Hedo Turkoglu than Delonte West), who can play 3 positions and isn’t a bad shooter from distance (37% with Miami last year). Anthony Parker gives them a true shooting guard (because shooting guards, generally, should be taller than 6’2”) with starting experience who can create for himself, unlike Daniel Gibson and can defend your average 2-guard. Now this gives Mike Brown some more versatility, especially in going small which is becoming a bigger factor in today’s NBA and defending the different elements that other teams can throw at them. And a guy to keep your eye on is Leon Powe. Though Powe probably won’t play until after the all-star break, he has been a key contributor on a championship team (Boston) and has a knack for scoring in the low post and is a good rebounder. He’s under the radar but he is an upgrade over Joe Smith.

The Cavs, after having the best record in the NBA last season, just needed some minor adjustments to their bench to come back stronger this year. The additions of Parker, Moon and Powe, when healthy, really added some versatility some versatility on the bench. The Shaq move also helps, though it is not major help. And Anderson Varejao being paid 50% more than he’s worth is bad no matter how you look at it. Overall, though it was a good offseason, even if it was way more expensive than it had to be.

Grade: B-