Saturday, January 8, 2011

NFL Playoffs FAQ

The second best time of year is upon us, with Christmas easily being the best (thanks Mom and Dad!) and March Madness a solid third (would be first if so many of the games didn’t just become a three-point shooting contest). Or, as Eagles fans call it, the most agonizing, frustrating time of the year.

The NFL playoffs have finally arrived, which means we get to look back and forward at a pretty crazy season. And since the owners and players are arguing about how to split billions of dollars, we’re going to have to enjoy this one extra special. The only way to do that is with the Frequently Asked Questions.

How did those preseason picks turn out?

To quote Charles Barkley, tuurrrible.

I had three NFC East teams in the playoffs, and none of them named the Eagles (though to be fair, my Eagles pick had serious merit. Redskins? Not so much). I had the Cowboys and the Redskins both being good. Yikes.

I had the Bears 5-11, though to be fair, they kind of play like a 5-11 teams. That should be half points. If the Packers weren’t so decimated by injuries, they definitely could have gone 13-3.

I underrated the Falcons; I overrated the NFC West, big deal. I had the AFC North right and the AFC South almost right. I, like everyone else, believed in the frauds that are the San Diego Chargers. And I thought the Patriots were going to suck.

(Wait, you caught that last part? How could I think the Patriots were going to suck? Well, um, let’s just move on and pretend it didn’t happen. Alright, so I got it mostly wrong but their defense is bad.)



What are the Eagles chances at a Super Bowl?

The best way to answer this question is to take a trip into the way-back machine:

The playoffs will be decided by Mike Vick.
It’s 2009. The Eagles have an explosive offense. Two young dynamic receivers. An up and coming running back. An offense completely predicated on the quarterback’s ability to just throw it really far. They’re really hot through the middle of the season heading towards the last few games. Even though the defense was suspect and the offense was really streaky, they had a shot to win the division and grab a two seed. And then, all of a sudden, they fade faster than Vince Carter in the fourth quarter.

Well now it’s 2011, and you can make a few trades (Donovan McNabb for Corn on the Kolb for Mike Vick) but pretty much, everything is the same. The team was piping hot in the middle of the season. The offense seemed unstoppable. They were winning close games, they were winning in blowouts, they were running the ball well (gasp!), they were winning the turnover battle; they were doing this well and that well too.

Then people started blitzing and pressing the receivers and we were dumbfounded. And promptly lost to the Vikings and get dominated by the Giants for 3 ½ quarters.

(Awkward silence)

This provides the moment where we will find out whether that Andy Reid apology was a good idea or not. I can already guess what Green Bay is going to do on defense 60% of the time. They’re going to send five or more people, one of them being a corner off the edge, with press coverage everywhere else.

There are three options to stop this:

Door 1: Hope Mike Vick just avoids everyone and runs downfield for 30 yards a la Giants game #2.

Door 2: Run all the receivers on deep routes as free rushers are attacking Vick, giving him no time to push it down the field and leading to sacks and turnovers and me turning the game off early.

Door 3: Maybe every once in a while, have the offensive line block a free rusher, run some shorter routes off the blitz so Vick doesn’t have to stand there awaiting slaughter like a chicken in a factory and maybe get them to back off the blitz.

It’s sounding a little bleak and I haven’t even mentioned Aaron Rodgers yet, who gets to go against a secondary that plays defense like the Golden State Warriors.

This is sounding more and more like last year. Needless to say, I’m not optimistic.

Is there any team that can beat the Patriots?

People think this team is so good that it’s now being said that they’re better than the 18-1 group from 2007. With that in mind, there are really four teams that have the best shot: Eagles (because of Vick), Packers (hung with them with Matt Flynn, just imagine what Rodgers could do), Steelers (they wouldn’t blow them out twice) and Ravens (can run the ball, always play them tough).

To stop this Patriots juggernaut, they really need to lose before the Super Bowl, because if we give Bill Belichick two weeks to prepare for a team he already saw or a freaky athlete, he’ll come up with something crazy, which includes call up all his buddies with video cameras.

The team that could give them the most problems is the Steelers. They always seem like they play better on the road then at home (game would be in Foxboro), Big Ben is the kind of frisky quarterback you need (makes plays in the big moments, never rattled, could even call Gisele to see what she’s doing for dinner to throw off Tom), have a good defense that can get pressure (it also helps to have Troy Polamalu).

All that said, I still don’t think they’ll lose. I’m just trying to make myself feel better (I hate the Patriots).

What about the Saints and Sea…?

Had to stop you there. I made a vow to never talk about the NFC West on this blog again, so just guess who I’m picking.

Are the Bears and/or Falcons any good?

If you look at my preseason picks, I had them both less than .500 for the season. Obviously, they did a little better than that. But I still don’t think either of them is good.

Problem with the Falcons: Their offense is predictable, their defense is slow, they have one wide receiver and a semi-washed up tight end, they got blown out by Kevin Kolb (THEY GOT BLOWN OUT BY KEVIN KOLB!), and their entire success is predicated on Matt Ryan brining them back in the fourth quarter. I really think the Falcons are just big frauds and won’t win a playoff game.

Problem with the Bears: Their offensive line sucks, Jay Cutler does that Jekyll and Hyde routine, Matt Forte just isn’t good, and if you can block Julius Peppers, you’ll throw on them all day.

The only advantage the Bears have is that they play on the worst field in NFL history. The fact that the NFL allows the Bears to play on glorified dirt is a travesty. It doesn’t affect them because they are slow and not that talented (OK, maybe I’m a little too fired up but still). But put a fast team like, oh say, the Eagles and it makes a huge difference for them. If the Eagles win against the Packers and go to Chicago (btw, anyone with tickets to that game is free to give me tickets), that is the only thing that concerns me about that team. On field turf or real, actual grass, I think the Eagles, Saints, Packers, Steelers etc. win by 14+.

Who would you give MVP?

Obviously, I’m just a tad bit biased. But here are the facts:

1. After the comeback against the Giants (I refuse to call it Miracle at the Meadowlands II because there were like 8 huge plays, not 1 but whatever), I think Vick was undoubtedly the MVP at that point. He was the only player, IN THE LEAGUE, who could have done what he did. Given the circumstances (crappy o-line, receivers not getting open, free rushers on virtually every play) only Vick could have made that happen. That sounds like most valuable to me.

2. In any other year, a bad game to end the year wouldn’t have meant that much (like Vick’s against the Vikings). Unfortunately, his main competition didn’t ever have a bad game, like ever. Tom Brady’s ridiculous line of 3,900 yards, 36 TDs and four INTs is truly mind boggling. Yes, throwing only four interceptions takes a lot of luck (dropped picks, no tipped balls etc.) but c’mon. I’ve said a lot of things about the Patriots (which I will now proceed to say: dirty, no-good cheaters who stole my, err the Eagles, chance at a Super Bowl with their video cameras. And you won’t convince me otherwise), but Brady has been outrageously good.

3. Even though I don’t think it should make a difference, Vick missing those games definitely hurts. If he plays 15 ½ games, his numbers are better than Brady’s and solidifies that he should be MVP, even if Brady only threw four picks.

So all that considered, I think Brady will win the award but I would vote for Vick. My biggest reason for voting for Vick is because he took a rebuilding season with little hope (I’m one of the more optimistic Eagles fans I know, which admittedly isn’t saying much, and I had us at 6-10 before the year) and turned us into a Super Bowl contender almost singlehandedly. I think that means something.

Do you still believe in the Jets?

I’ve always liked Rex Ryan and the Sanchize but I feel like that boat has gotten much, much smaller.

Maybe my belief was always based on how cool I thought Ryan was. He was the anti-Belichick/Reid. He made the game just a game, not life or death. Rex Ryan made watching and following football more fun (I mean, did you see Hard Knocks?!!!???!). But after that 45-3 Patriots whipping, maybe he should stop joking around or spending his free time making foot fetish videos.

All that said, I still believe in the Jets. I still think they’re good. Sanchez keeps getting better, they still have Darrelle Revis, Santonio Holmes is a legit wide receivers (unlike whatever you could characterize Braylon Edwards as). The pass rush is suspect and the running game has had a tendency to disappear, but I don’t care about that. I don’t desert my teams. I think they’ll beat the Colts.

Who makes it to the Super Bowl?

Wild Card Weekend
Eagles OVER Packers (A matchup that happens way too soon. These are the two best teams in the NFC, in my opinion. The Packers may be a little better, I may not be optimistic in our ability to stop Rodgers, but in Mike Vick I trust)
Saints OVER other team (I will not mention NFC West teams on this blog, period)

Jets OVER Colts (The Colts just don’t look like the belong in the playoffs. They’re too beat up. You know you have problems when you have to consistently throw to a receiver named Blair White)
Ravens OVER Chiefs (Typical young team gets to playoffs too soon, gets blown out by veteran team, and the young team fades to 6-10 the next season. Book it)

Divisional Round
Eagles OVER Bears (The Bears aren’t good. They could win the Super Bowl and I won’t think they’re good. You aren’t convincing me otherwise)
Saints OVER Falcons (Saints are better. Falcons home field advantage is overrated)

Steelers OVER Ravens (It just always seems like Pittsburgh wins the biggest games in this rivalry)
Patriots OVER Jets (As much as I wanted to pick the Jets here, all I could think about is 45-3)

Championship Weekend
Eagles OVER Saints (Eagles at home, Saints out of a comfortable dome and not playing an NFC West travesty. I don’t think the Saints can stop the Eagles offense. At all)

Patriots OVER Steelers (I hate both teams. I’m picking the Pats because they’re really good and I want a rematch)

Who wins the Super Bowl?

I think this is the most compelling potential Super Bowl matchup (other than Chiefs, NFC West obviously). Vick v. Brady. Reid v. Belichick. Philly v. Boston (for those who remember the old Sixers-Celtics battles and last year’s magical Flyers comeback against the Bruins). The PETA people (would make a reappearance since they stopped showing up to Eagles games because they got treated worst than Santa Claus in Philly). A clean Super Bowl rematch since, hopefully, Belichick has cut out that videotaping garbage.

In terms of the game, it could be the highest scoring game ever: two terrible defenses, two virtually unstoppable quarterbacks. Which naturally means this game would be 13-10.

Everything I know about football is telling me to pick the Patriots. Belichick certainly would have a plan to stop our offense, Brady would attack Dimitri Patterson so often, SWAT teams would need to be called in, and Reid would undoubtedly bungle at two minute drill by calling a mind-numbingly awful timeout.

But if the Eagles are going to win a Super Bowl, break the 50 year championship drought, doesn’t it have to happen with remarkable circumstances? Has this season not been full of remarkable circumstances?

Trade McNabb, anoint Kolb, try to trade Vick, then start Vick, remake Vick (a guy who never threw the ball remotely well, oh and had just been in prison for two) into the fourth rated passer and a division title, get written off by the national media after two bad games to end the year, coming off the greatest regular season game in team history. Isn’t it supposed to end with Mike Vick on the podium, having overcome everything from football, to dog-fighting, to people calling for his execution, taking the Super Bowl MVP. Doesn’t Andy Reid, for all his faults, deserve a Super Bowl and prove to everyone, including the best coach of his generation, that he deserves to be recognized?

Am I being overly optimistic and a tad bit swept up in the magic that has been this Eagles season? I don’t think there’s any doubt about that. But I don’t care.

Eagles 31. Patriots 27.

In Mike Vick I trust.

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