Lost in the hype and anticipation surrounding the Phillies interest in Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Roy Halladay, is what the Phillies already have. Beyond the suggestions that the Phillies should just step up and send a small army of prospects to Toronto for J.P. Ricciardi to pick and choose from, I think we have collectively lost sight of one guy.
Cole Hamels.
It’s not as if people have forgotten his name. The talk is centered on pairing Halladay and Hamels together to create this unstoppable playoff force that makes them the favorite to repeat as World Series champions this year and possibly in 2010.
Here’s where the memory appears to lapse about Cole Hamels. He’s already that unstoppable playoff force. He just needs to show it again.
Just months removed from winning every MVP award they give for postseason performance, Hamels showed that you really don’t need much of a bullpen or starting rotation behind him when he is on a roll. Hamels put the team on his back down in October and won his team a World Series championship.
The problem arises because he’s not pitching the way we all expected. We, or at least I, expected Hamels to be a perennial Cy Young candidate after his magical playoff performance last season (35 IP 4-0 1.80 ERA). Then the injury problems came at the beginning of the year and he got off to a slow start. His first few starts weren’t right and he didn’t look healthy. As a result, he’s been average for most, if not all season.
In step the trade rumors, mostly discussing Halladay because the Phillies need a starting pitcher, apparently. But they don’t need Halladay. They need Hamels.
The Phillies find themselves as legitimate contenders for the World Series, without Halladay and with Cole Hamels being as average as he has been. In such a weak National League (think the NBA’s Eastern Conference circa 2003), they are on a virtual collision course with the Dodgers for the pennant. There is no dominant team in the American League. Every contender has their flaws: Boston has suddenly lost their power, the Yankees and Dodgers have middle relief issues, and the Phillies and Angels have issues with starting pitching. Hamels by himself could be the extra boost to put the Phillies over the top.
Yes, Halladay is a great pitcher, maybe the best is baseball (though my money is on Dan Haren in Arizona). Yes, he would be a great addition for every franchise in the MLB (especially Washington, since they don’t want Stephen Strasburg). But the cost is just too great.
To open talks with the Blue Jays, it will probably take J.A. Happ and top prospect Kyle Drabek. This is just to begin the trade discussion. There has been some discussion that it could 4 or more top prospects to get Halladay. Is it worth sending a clown car full of prospects to Toronto for Halladay?
History says maybe, maybe not. These pitching blockbusters usually have mixed results. There are the St. Louis Cardinals and Montreal Expos (currently the Washington Nationals), who acquired big name pitchers Mark Mulder and Bartolo Colon, respectively. They were average or worse with their new teams. Then there are the guys that St. Louis and Montreal traded away. St. Louis traded away Dan Haren. Montreal traded away Grady Sizemore and Cliff Lee. Those guys are pretty good.
But then there is the CC Sabathia deal that happened last year. Sabathia basically took the Milwaukee Brewers to the playoffs singlehandedly after getting traded from the Indians, though the jury is still out on the prospects they dealt.
So, though I think that Halladay will be more like Sabathia than the injury plagued Mulder, it’s 50/50 with these kinds of deals, at best (especially considering Halladay and I have the same amount of postseason innings). The last thing I want to see is J.A. Happ doing his best Tom Glavine impression north of the border.
The focus, instead of looking to acquire talent, should be on getting the talent you have right. You need a dominant Cole Hamels to think you’re going to have any success doing anything in October, whether you have Halladay or not. Hamels is the key to all your success.
With the offense that the Phillies have and the good defense they play, the Phillies just need Hamels to recapture some of the magic he had last year. They won a World Series with mediocre pitching behind Hamels, so what is to stop them from doing it again this year?
We’ve seen a sporadic Cole Hamels all year. One night, he’s dominating the Dodgers: the next night he struggles against the anemic Braves offense.
It’s not that I’m against the Phillies going to get a frontline starting pitcher to add to the rotation. By all means, please do: at the right price, however. The Blue Jays want to own the totality of the Phillies farm system for that starter. The risk and price doesn’t quite match the potential reward or failure.
Instead, the Phillies should look towards Hamels. He holds the near-future of this team in his left arm. If he regains what he was the previous two seasons, the Phillies won’t need Halladay to embark on another World Series celebration.
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